Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior prediction

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior preview

Eredivisie action on Sunday 25 October sees Excelsior travel to face Fortuna Sittard. In the standings, Excelsior are 12th on 11 points from 9 games and Fortuna Sittard 6th on 15 points from 9 games. That puts Fortuna Sittard six places higher. On form, Fortuna Sittard have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DDWLW), while Excelsior have not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (LLDLD). In front of goal, Fortuna Sittard score 1.8 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Excelsior score 1.8 and concede 2.0.

Our model expects around 1.5 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.2 for Excelsior, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%. We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Fortuna Sittard 38% to win, the draw 25% and Excelsior 37%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 41%, 27% and 35%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 65%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.