Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction
Utrecht
PEC ZwolleResult: Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Lost |
| Both teams to score | Won |
| Utrecht to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 73%
- Expected goals 1.8–2.0, so 73% for over 2.5 and 73% for both to score
- Last five: Utrecht DWWLW, PEC Zwolle DWLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
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Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle preview
This Eredivisie match between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle was played on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, PEC Zwolle are 15th on 8 points from 10 games and Utrecht 11th on 12 points from 10 games. On form, Utrecht have won three of their last five (DWWLW), while PEC Zwolle have lost three of their last five (DWLLL). In front of goal, Utrecht score 1.7 and concede 2.7 a game on average; PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and concede 2.3. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Utrecht and 2.0 for PEC Zwolle, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 73%. We make Utrecht 34% to win, the draw 23% and PEC Zwolle 42%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 65%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. The edge is slim at around 3%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 34% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – | – |
| PEC Zwolle win | 42% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 73% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 27% | – | – | – |
| Utrecht or draw | 58% | – | – | – |
| PEC Zwolle or draw | 66% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 77% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.8 |
| PEC Zwolle | 2.0 |
| Total | 3.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 9% |
| Utrecht 1–2 PEC Zwolle | 8% |
| Utrecht 2–2 PEC Zwolle | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | |
| PEC Zwolle |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 11th | 12 | 10 |
| PEC Zwolle | 15th | 8 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: FAQ
Who will win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The match finished Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle. Before kick-off we made Utrecht 34% to win, the draw 23% and PEC Zwolle 42%, so PEC Zwolle were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
We gave both teams to score a 73% chance. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Utrecht and 2.0 for PEC Zwolle. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model expects about 3.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 73% and under 2.5 at 27%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 1–1, 2 goals in all.
What time does Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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