Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La CorunaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 61%; the best price of 1.65 implies 61%
- Expected goals 2.1–1.2, so 61% for over 2.5 and 48% for both to score
- Last five: Atletico Madrid WWWWW, Deportivo La Coruna DLDLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna preview
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna are under way in La Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in the table on 22 points from 9 games, while Deportivo La Coruna are 9th with 11 points. That puts Atletico Madrid seven places higher. Recent results matter here: Atletico Madrid have won each of their last five (WWWWW) and Deportivo La Coruna have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLDLD). Atletico Madrid average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.3 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Our model expects around 2.1 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.2 for Deportivo La Coruna, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%. We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 48%. We make Atletico Madrid 72% to win, the draw 17% and Deportivo La Coruna 10%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 75%, 16% and 8%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 61%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 72% | 1.34 | 75% | -3% |
| Draw | 17% | 6.20 | 16% | +7% |
| Deportivo La Coruna win | 10% | 12.00 | 8% | +23% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | 61% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.50 | 40% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 2.12 | 47% | +3% |
| Not both to score | 52% | 1.80 | 56% | -7% |
| Atletico Madrid or draw | 90% | 1.08 | 93% | -3% |
| Deportivo La Coruna or draw | 28% | 3.80 | 26% | +5% |
| Either team to win | 83% | 1.16 | 86% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 2.1 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 1.2 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna | 10% |
| Atletico Madrid 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna | 10% |
| Atletico Madrid 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | |
| Deportivo La Coruna |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 2nd | 22 | 9 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 9th | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.75 (57%) | 2.15 (47%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.71 (58%) | 2.20 (45%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: FAQ
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
We make Atletico Madrid 72% to win, the draw 17% and Deportivo La Coruna 10%, so Atletico Madrid are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Atletico Madrid the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
We give both teams to score a 48% chance, against 47% implied by the best price of 2.12. Our expected goals are 2.1 for Atletico Madrid and 1.2 for Deportivo La Coruna.
How many goals in Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 61% and under 2.5 at 39%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.65. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna kicked off at 19:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in La Liga.
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