Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction
Villarreal
EspanyolNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 58%; the best price of 1.66 implies 60%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.3, so 58% for over 2.5 and 57% for both to score
- Last five: Villarreal DLWWL, Espanyol LLDLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Villarreal the win 58%.
Both sides expected to score: 1.5 and 1.3 xG.
Build your bet slip
Villarreal vs Espanyol preview
Villarreal host Espanyol in La Liga on Friday 30 October. Villarreal sit 14th in the table on 9 points from 9 games, while Espanyol are 18th with 8 points. On form, Villarreal have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (DLWWL), while Espanyol have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLDLL). Villarreal average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.2 and 1.4 for Espanyol. On expected goals we have Villarreal at 1.5 and Espanyol at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (13%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Villarreal 58% to win, the draw 22% and Espanyol 20%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 63%, 22% and 18%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 58%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.66. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 58% | 1.60 | 63% | -7% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | 22% | +3% |
| Espanyol win | 20% | 5.70 | 18% | +12% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.66 | 60% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.42 | 41% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 1.67 | 60% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 43% | 2.15 | 47% | -7% |
| Villarreal or draw | 80% | 1.18 | 85% | -5% |
| Espanyol or draw | 42% | 2.50 | 40% | +5% |
| Either team to win | 78% | 1.24 | 81% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.5 |
| Espanyol | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 1–1 Espanyol | 13% |
| Villarreal 2–1 Espanyol | 9% |
| Villarreal 1–2 Espanyol | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | |
| Espanyol |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 14th | 9 | 9 |
| Espanyol | 18th | 8 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Espanyol | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Villarreal vs Espanyol: FAQ
Who will win Villarreal vs Espanyol?
We make Villarreal 58% to win, the draw 22% and Espanyol 20%, so Villarreal are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Villarreal the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Villarreal and 1.3 for Espanyol.
How many goals in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.66. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Villarreal vs Espanyol kick off?
Villarreal vs Espanyol kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026, in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La Coruna
Athletic Club
Getafe
Celta Vigo
Real Betis
Real Sociedad
Levante
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Osasuna