La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction

La Liga · Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Rayo Vallecano

15:15

Kick-off (UTC)

Celta Vigo

Our verdict · Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

Our chance60%

Best price1.68

Fair odds1.67

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 60%; the best price of 1.68 implies 60%
Expected goals 1.0–1.0 (most likely score 0-0)
Last five: Rayo Vallecano LDDW, Celta Vigo WDWDD
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

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Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo preview

Rayo Vallecano host Celta Vigo in La Liga on Saturday 31 October. In the standings, Celta Vigo are 8th on 11 points from 9 games and Rayo Vallecano 17th on 9 points from 9 games. That puts Celta Vigo nine places higher. On form, Rayo Vallecano have picked up one win, two draws and one defeat in their last four (LDDW), while Celta Vigo have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (WDWDD). In front of goal, Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 2.2 a game on average; Celta Vigo score 1.1 and concede 0.8. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.0 for Celta Vigo, and 0–0 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. We make Rayo Vallecano 40% to win, the draw 30% and Celta Vigo 30%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 43%, 28% and 30%. Our verdict is Celta Vigo or draw: we rate it at 60%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.68. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Rayo Vallecano win	40%	2.35	43%	-6%
Draw	30%	3.51	28%	+4%
Celta Vigo win	30%	3.34	30%	+1%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.11	47%	-6%
Under 2.5 goals	56%	1.84	54%	+2%
Both teams to score	50%	1.80	56%	-11%
Not both to score	50%	1.98	51%	0%
Rayo Vallecano or draw	70%	1.39	72%	-3%
Celta Vigo or draw	60%	1.68	60%	+1%
Either team to win	70%	1.36	74%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Rayo Vallecano	1.0
Celta Vigo	1.0
Total	2.0

Most likely scores	Chance
Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Celta Vigo	15%
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Celta Vigo	15%
Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Celta Vigo	12%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Rayo Vallecano	17th	9	9
Celta Vigo	8th	11	9

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Rayo Vallecano	1.3	2.2
Celta Vigo	1.1	0.8

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: FAQ

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

We make Rayo Vallecano 40% to win, the draw 30% and Celta Vigo 30%, so Rayo Vallecano are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Rayo Vallecano the shorter price. Our verdict is Celta Vigo or draw at 60%.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

We give both teams to score a 50% chance, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.0 for Celta Vigo.

How many goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

Our model expects about 2.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 44% and under 2.5 at 56%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.11. The single most likely score is 0–0.

What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kick off?

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kicks off at 15:15 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in La Liga.