Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction
Auxerre
Le MansNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%; the best price of 1.62 implies 62%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.4, so 58% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Auxerre WLWWL, Le Mans LLWDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 72% combined.
Expected goals 1.8–1.4, 3.1 in total.
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Auxerre vs Le Mans preview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 25 October sees Le Mans travel to face Auxerre. In the standings, Le Mans are 16th on 6 points from 7 games and Auxerre 13th on 9 points from 7 games. Le Mans come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLWDD); Auxerre have won three of their last five (WLWWL). Auxerre average 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 2.1 for Le Mans. On expected goals we have Auxerre at 1.8 and Le Mans at 1.4, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Auxerre 46% to win, the draw 26% and Le Mans 28%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 26% and 28%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 60%, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 46% | 2.15 | 47% | -1% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | 26% | -1% |
| Le Mans win | 28% | 3.56 | 28% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 | 57% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.27 | 44% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 1.62 | 62% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 40% | 2.30 | 43% | -7% |
| Auxerre or draw | 72% | 1.35 | 74% | -3% |
| Le Mans or draw | 54% | 1.79 | 56% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.8 |
| Le Mans | 1.4 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Auxerre 1–1 Le Mans | 12% |
| Auxerre 2–1 Le Mans | 9% |
| Auxerre 1–2 Le Mans | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Auxerre | |
| Le Mans |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 13th | 9 | 7 |
| Le Mans | 16th | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Le Mans | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.96 (51%) | 1.91 (52%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.66 (60%) | 2.25 (44%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: FAQ
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
We make Auxerre 46% to win, the draw 26% and Le Mans 28%, so Auxerre are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Auxerre the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 60%.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Auxerre and 1.4 for Le Mans.
How many goals in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.74. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Auxerre vs Le Mans kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Mans kicks off at 16:15 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
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