Monaco vs Lille prediction
Monaco
LilleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.78 implies 56%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Monaco LDWDW, Lille DWLWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.4 and 1.2 xG.
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Monaco vs Lille preview
Monaco host Lille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October. Monaco sit 5th in the table on 14 points from 7 games, while Lille are 4th with 14 points. The two sides are level on points. On form, Monaco have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (LDWDW), while Lille have won three of their last five (DWLWW). In front of goal, Monaco score 1.4 and concede 0.9 a game on average; Lille score 1.4 and concede 0.7. On expected goals we have Monaco at 1.4 and Lille at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Monaco 44% to win, the draw 29% and Lille 27%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 29% and 25%. Our verdict is Lille or draw: we rate it at 56%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 44% | 2.15 | 47% | -5% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | 29% | +0% |
| Lille win | 27% | 3.93 | 25% | +6% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.89 | 53% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.07 | 48% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 1.70 | 59% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 44% | 2.25 | 44% | -2% |
| Monaco or draw | 73% | 1.31 | 76% | -4% |
| Lille or draw | 56% | 1.78 | 56% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 71% | 1.36 | 74% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.4 |
| Lille | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Monaco 1–1 Lille | 14% |
| Monaco 0–0 Lille | 9% |
| Monaco 1–0 Lille | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Monaco | |
| Lille |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 5th | 14 | 7 |
| Lille | 4th | 14 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Lille | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.00 (50%) | 1.87 (53%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.65 (61%) | 2.25 (44%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Monaco vs Lille: FAQ
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
We make Monaco 44% to win, the draw 29% and Lille 27%, so Monaco are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Monaco the shorter price. Our verdict is Lille or draw at 56%.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?
We give both teams to score a 56% chance, against 59% implied by the best price of 1.70. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Monaco and 1.2 for Lille.
How many goals in Monaco vs Lille?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.89. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Monaco vs Lille kick off?
Monaco vs Lille kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
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