Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 preview

Lorient welcome Stade Brestois 29 on Saturday 31 October in Ligue 1. In the standings, Stade Brestois 29 are 11th on 9 points from 8 games and Lorient 7th on 11 points from 7 games. Recent results matter here: Lorient have won three of their last five (WWLDW) and Stade Brestois 29 have lost three of their last five (LDWLL). In front of goal, Lorient score 1.0 and concede 0.9 a game on average; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.8 and concede 1.5. Our model expects around 1.4 goals for Lorient and 1.3 for Stade Brestois 29, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Lorient 37% to win, the draw 28% and Stade Brestois 29 36%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 37%, 28% and 37%. Our verdict is Lorient or draw: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.53. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.