Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Bayern München
Borussia DortmundNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 77%; the best price of 1.24 implies 81%
- Expected goals 2.7–1.1, so 77% for over 2.5 and 67% for both to score
- Last five: Bayern München WDWWD, Borussia Dortmund DDWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Bayern München the win 72%.
Both sides expected to score: 2.7 and 1.1 xG.
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Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund preview
Bayern München welcome Borussia Dortmund on Saturday 31 October in the Bundesliga. In the standings, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 14 points from 6 games and Bayern München 1st on 14 points from 6 games. The two sides are level on points. Both sides have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws: Bayern München WDWWD and Borussia Dortmund DDWWW. Bayern München average 3.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, compared with 1.8 and 0.7 for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals we have Bayern München at 2.7 and Borussia Dortmund at 1.1, with 2–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 67%. We make Bayern München 72% to win, the draw 16% and Borussia Dortmund 12%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 74%, 15% and 13%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 77%, against 81% implied by the best price of 1.24. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 72% | 1.36 | 74% | -2% |
| Draw | 16% | 6.47 | 15% | +2% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 12% | 7.85 | 13% | -2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.24 | 81% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23% | 4.60 | 22% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 1.40 | 71% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 33% | 3.00 | 33% | -1% |
| Bayern München or draw | 88% | 1.12 | 89% | -2% |
| Borussia Dortmund or draw | 28% | 3.45 | 29% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 84% | 1.15 | 87% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Bayern München | 2.7 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.1 |
| Total | 3.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund | 9% |
| Bayern München 2–0 Borussia Dortmund | 8% |
| Bayern München 3–1 Borussia Dortmund | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Bayern München | |
| Borussia Dortmund |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 1st | 14 | 6 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2nd | 14 | 6 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.8 | 0.7 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.75 (57%) | 2.00 (50%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: FAQ
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
We make Bayern München 72% to win, the draw 16% and Borussia Dortmund 12%, so Bayern München are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Bayern München the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 77%.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
We give both teams to score a 67% chance, against 71% implied by the best price of 1.40. Our expected goals are 2.7 for Bayern München and 1.1 for Borussia Dortmund.
How many goals in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model expects about 3.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 77% and under 2.5 at 23%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.24. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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