FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction
FC Augsburg
SC FreiburgNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 63%; the best price of 1.52 implies 66%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.3, so 63% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: FC Augsburg DLDLD, SC Freiburg LWDWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 66% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.8 and 1.3 xG.
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FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg preview
FC Augsburg welcome SC Freiburg on Saturday 31 October in the Bundesliga. In the standings, SC Freiburg are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games and FC Augsburg 9th on 9 points from 7 games. That puts SC Freiburg six places higher. On form, FC Augsburg have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLDLD), while SC Freiburg have won three of their last five (LWDWW). FC Augsburg average 2.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 2.5 and 1.0 for SC Freiburg. On expected goals we have FC Augsburg at 1.8 and SC Freiburg at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. We make FC Augsburg 34% to win, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 41%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 33%, 25% and 44%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 63%, against 66% implied by the best price of 1.52. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 34% | 3.07 | 33% | +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.07 | 25% | -1% |
| SC Freiburg win | 41% | 2.25 | 44% | -7% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.52 | 66% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.65 | 38% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.44 | 69% | -7% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.75 | 36% | -3% |
| FC Augsburg or draw | 59% | 1.72 | 58% | +1% |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 66% | 1.43 | 70% | -6% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.28 | 78% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.8 |
| SC Freiburg | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 1–1 SC Freiburg | 12% |
| FC Augsburg 2–1 SC Freiburg | 9% |
| FC Augsburg 2–0 SC Freiburg | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | |
| SC Freiburg |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 9th | 9 | 7 |
| SC Freiburg | 3rd | 13 | 6 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| SC Freiburg | 2.5 | 1.0 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.02 (50%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: FAQ
Who will win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
We make FC Augsburg 34% to win, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 41%, so SC Freiburg are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with SC Freiburg the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.8 for FC Augsburg and 1.3 for SC Freiburg.
How many goals in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and under 2.5 at 37%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.52. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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