FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Werder BremenResult: FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Won |
| Both teams to score | Won |
| FSV Mainz 05 to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 76%
- Expected goals 1.9–2.1, so 76% for over 2.5 and 76% for both to score
- Last five: FSV Mainz 05 LWLWL, Werder Bremen WDDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen preview
This Bundesliga match between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen was played on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Werder Bremen are 6th on 12 points from 7 games and FSV Mainz 05 7th on 10 points from 7 games. On form, FSV Mainz 05 have lost three of their last five (LWLWL), while Werder Bremen have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (WDDWD). In front of goal, FSV Mainz 05 score 2.3 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Werder Bremen score 2.1 and concede 2.0. Our model expects around 1.9 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.1 for Werder Bremen, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 76%. We make FSV Mainz 05 35% to win, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 42%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 65%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.56. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 22% | – | – | – |
| Werder Bremen win | 42% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 76% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 24% | – | – | – |
| FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 58% | – | – | – |
| Werder Bremen or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 78% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.9 |
| Werder Bremen | 2.1 |
| Total | 4.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder Bremen | 8% |
| FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen | 8% |
| FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Werder Bremen | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | |
| Werder Bremen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 7th | 10 | 7 |
| Werder Bremen | 6th | 12 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Werder Bremen | 2.1 | 2.0 |
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: FAQ
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The match finished FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen. Before kick-off we made FSV Mainz 05 35% to win, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 42%, so Werder Bremen were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We gave both teams to score a 76% chance. Our expected goals are 1.9 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.1 for Werder Bremen. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our model expects about 4.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 76% and under 2.5 at 24%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 2–3, 5 goals in all.
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 13:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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