Middlesbrough vs Charlton prediction
Middlesbrough
CharltonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 70%
- Expected goals 2.4–1.2, so 70% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Middlesbrough WDWWD, Charlton LLDDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.4 and 1.2 xG.
Our model gives Middlesbrough the win 62%.
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Middlesbrough vs Charlton preview
Championship action on Saturday 31 October sees Charlton travel to face Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough sit 1st in the table on 25 points from 12 games, while Charlton are 19th with 14 points. That puts Middlesbrough 18 places higher. Recent results matter here: Middlesbrough have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDWWD) and Charlton have not won any of their last five (two draws, three defeats) (LLDDL). Middlesbrough average 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, compared with 0.9 and 1.5 for Charlton. On expected goals we have Middlesbrough at 2.4 and Charlton at 1.2, with 2–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Middlesbrough 62% to win, the draw 21% and Charlton 17%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 70%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 62% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 21% | – | – | – |
| Charlton win | 17% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 65% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 35% | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough or draw | 83% | – | – | – |
| Charlton or draw | 38% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 79% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 2.4 |
| Charlton | 1.2 |
| Total | 3.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Charlton | 9% |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Charlton | 9% |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 Charlton | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | |
| Charlton |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1st | 25 | 12 |
| Charlton | 19th | 14 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Charlton | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: FAQ
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
We make Middlesbrough 62% to win, the draw 21% and Charlton 17%, so Middlesbrough are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance. Our expected goals are 2.4 for Middlesbrough and 1.2 for Charlton.
How many goals in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our model expects about 3.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and under 2.5 at 30%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Middlesbrough vs Charlton kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Charlton kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Championship.
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