Millwall vs Derby prediction
Millwall
DerbyNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 59%
- Expected goals 1.9–1.1, so 58% for over 2.5 and 59% for both to score
- Last five: Millwall LDLWD, Derby DLLDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.9–1.2, 3.0 in total.
Our model gives Millwall the win 53%.
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Millwall vs Derby preview
Millwall welcome Derby on Saturday 31 October in the Championship. In the standings, Derby are 23rd on 7 points from 12 games and Millwall 13th on 15 points from 12 games. That puts Millwall ten places higher. Recent results matter here: Millwall have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDLWD) and Derby have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLLDD). In front of goal, Millwall score 1.6 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Derby score 0.8 and concede 1.8. Our model expects around 1.9 goals for Millwall and 1.2 for Derby, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Millwall 53% to win, the draw 25% and Derby 22%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 59%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 53% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Derby win | 22% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 41% | – | – | – |
| Millwall or draw | 78% | – | – | – |
| Derby or draw | 47% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.9 |
| Derby | 1.2 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Millwall 1–1 Derby | 12% |
| Millwall 2–1 Derby | 10% |
| Millwall 2–0 Derby | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Millwall | |
| Derby |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 13th | 15 | 12 |
| Derby | 23rd | 7 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Derby | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Millwall vs Derby: FAQ
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
We make Millwall 53% to win, the draw 25% and Derby 22%, so Millwall are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 59%.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Millwall and 1.2 for Derby.
How many goals in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Championship.
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