Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction
Sheffield Utd
DerbyResult: Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Won |
| Sheffield Utd to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 54%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.1, so 49% for over 2.5 and 54% for both to score
- Last five: Sheffield Utd DWLWL, Derby DLLDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
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Sheffield Utd vs Derby preview
Sheffield Utd hosted Derby in the Championship on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Sheffield Utd sit 12th in the table on 16 points from 12 games, while Derby are 23rd with 7 points. That puts Sheffield Utd 11 places higher. On form, Sheffield Utd have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (DWLWL), while Derby have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLLDD). Sheffield Utd average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 0.8 and 1.8 for Derby.
Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.1 for Derby, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. We make Sheffield Utd 47% to win, the draw 28% and Derby 25%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 55%, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.73. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd win | 47% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – | – |
| Derby win | 25% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 46% | – | – | – |
| Sheffield Utd or draw | 75% | – | – | – |
| Derby or draw | 53% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 72% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 1.6 |
| Derby | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby | 13% |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Derby | 10% |
| Sheffield Utd 2–1 Derby | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | |
| Derby |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 12th | 16 | 12 |
| Derby | 23rd | 7 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Derby | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: FAQ
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
The match finished Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby. Before kick-off we made Sheffield Utd 47% to win, the draw 28% and Derby 25%, so Sheffield Utd were the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict was Both teams to score at 55%.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
We gave both teams to score a 54% chance. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Sheffield Utd and 1.1 for Derby. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 at 51%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 1–1, 2 goals in all.
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby kicked off at 11:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Championship.
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