Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
Aston Villa
FulhamNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.83 implies 55%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.0 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Aston Villa WWDWL, Fulham WWLDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.1 and 1.0 xG.
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Aston Villa vs Fulham preview
Aston Villa welcome Fulham on Saturday 31 October in the Premier League. Aston Villa sit 6th in the table on 11 points from 8 games, while Fulham are 12th with 8 points. That puts Aston Villa six places higher. Recent results matter here: Aston Villa have won three of their last five (WWDWL) and Fulham have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WWLDD). In front of goal, Aston Villa score 1.1 and concede 1.5 a game on average; Fulham score 1.0 and concede 1.3. Our model expects around 1.1 goals for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fulham, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Aston Villa 44% to win, the draw 28% and Fulham 28%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 26% and 28%. Our verdict is Fulham or draw: we rate it at 56%, against 55% implied by the best price of 1.83. The edge is slim at around 3%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 44% | 2.14 | 47% | -6% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.80 | 26% | +6% |
| Fulham win | 28% | 3.60 | 28% | +2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.83 | 55% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.14 | 47% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 1.62 | 62% | -9% |
| Not both to score | 44% | 2.25 | 44% | -1% |
| Aston Villa or draw | 72% | 1.35 | 74% | -3% |
| Fulham or draw | 56% | 1.83 | 55% | +3% |
| Either team to win | 72% | 1.31 | 76% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.1 |
| Fulham | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham | 15% |
| Aston Villa 0–0 Fulham | 14% |
| Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | |
| Fulham |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6th | 11 | 8 |
| Fulham | 12th | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Fulham | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Aston Villa vs Fulham: FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
We make Aston Villa 44% to win, the draw 28% and Fulham 28%, so Aston Villa are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Aston Villa the shorter price. Our verdict is Fulham or draw at 56%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
We give both teams to score a 56% chance, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.62. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Aston Villa and 1.0 for Fulham.
How many goals in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our model expects about 2.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.83. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Aston Villa vs Fulham kick off?
Aston Villa vs Fulham kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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