Liverpool vs Brighton prediction
Liverpool
BrightonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 1.2–2.3, so 64% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Liverpool WLWDW, Brighton WWWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 65% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.2 and 2.3 xG.
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Liverpool vs Brighton preview
Liverpool host Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October. In the standings, Brighton are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games and Liverpool 5th on 12 points from 7 games. On form, Liverpool have won three of their last five (WLWDW), while Brighton have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWWWD). In front of goal, Liverpool score 1.3 and concede 1.1 a game on average; Brighton score 3.3 and concede 0.7. On expected goals we have Liverpool at 1.2 and Brighton at 2.3, with 1–2 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Liverpool 41% to win, the draw 24% and Brighton 35%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 25% and 30%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 41% | 2.15 | 47% | -11% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 | 25% | -3% |
| Brighton win | 35% | 3.29 | 30% | +14% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 | 65% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.63 | 38% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.47 | 68% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.80 | 36% | -2% |
| Liverpool or draw | 65% | 1.38 | 72% | -10% |
| Brighton or draw | 59% | 1.78 | 56% | +4% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.28 | 78% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.2 |
| Brighton | 2.3 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1–2 Brighton | 10% |
| Liverpool 1–1 Brighton | 9% |
| Liverpool 0–2 Brighton | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | |
| Brighton |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 5th | 12 | 7 |
| Brighton | 3rd | 16 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Brighton | 3.3 | 0.7 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.73 (58%) | 2.17 (46%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.60 (63%) | 2.39 (42%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Liverpool vs Brighton: FAQ
Who will win Liverpool vs Brighton?
We make Liverpool 41% to win, the draw 24% and Brighton 35%, so Liverpool are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Liverpool the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Brighton?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.47. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Liverpool and 2.3 for Brighton.
How many goals in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.55. The single most likely score is 1–2.
What time does Liverpool vs Brighton kick off?
Liverpool vs Brighton kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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