Manchester United vs Bournemouth prediction
Manchester United
BournemouthNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 2.3–1.3, so 60% for over 2.5 and 64% for both to score
- Last five: Manchester United DDDLD, Bournemouth WLLDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 72% combined.
Expected goals 2.3–1.3, 3.6 in total.
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Manchester United vs Bournemouth preview
Premier League action on Sunday 25 October sees Bournemouth travel to face Manchester United. Manchester United sit 14th in the table on 7 points from 7 games, while Bournemouth are 16th with 6 points. Bournemouth come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WLLDD); Manchester United have not won any of their last five (four draws, one defeat) (DDDLD). Manchester United average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 1.9 for Bournemouth. Our model expects around 2.3 goals for Manchester United and 1.3 for Bournemouth, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. We make Manchester United 46% to win, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 28%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 44%, 27% and 30%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 46% | 2.25 | 44% | +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 | 27% | -4% |
| Bournemouth win | 28% | 3.36 | 30% | -6% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.71 | 58% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.33 | 43% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 1.55 | 65% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 36% | 2.60 | 38% | -6% |
| Manchester United or draw | 72% | 1.40 | 71% | +1% |
| Bournemouth or draw | 54% | 1.74 | 57% | -7% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.32 | 76% | -2% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Manchester United | 2.3 |
| Bournemouth | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 2–1 Bournemouth | 9% |
| Manchester United 1–1 Bournemouth | 9% |
| Manchester United 3–1 Bournemouth | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Manchester United | |
| Bournemouth |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 14th | 7 | 7 |
| Bournemouth | 16th | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Bournemouth | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.73 (58%) | 2.23 (45%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.67 (60%) | 2.55 (39%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: FAQ
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
We make Manchester United 46% to win, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 28%, so Manchester United are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Manchester United the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 64%.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
We give both teams to score a 64% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 2.3 for Manchester United and 1.3 for Bournemouth.
How many goals in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our model expects about 3.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 60% and under 2.5 at 40%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.71. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Manchester United vs Bournemouth kick off?
Manchester United vs Bournemouth kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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