Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction
Crystal Palace
NewcastleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 68%; the best price of 1.46 implies 68%
- Expected goals 2.2–1.8, so 63% for over 2.5 and 68% for both to score
- Last five: Crystal Palace LWDLW, Newcastle LLWLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 66% combined.
Expected goals 2.2–1.8, 4.0 in total.
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Crystal Palace vs Newcastle preview
Crystal Palace welcome Newcastle on Sunday 25 October in the Premier League. Crystal Palace sit 16th in the table on 7 points from 7 games, while Newcastle are 14th with 8 points. Recent results matter here: Crystal Palace have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LWDLW) and Newcastle have lost three of their last five (LLWLD). Crystal Palace average 1.3 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 2.0 for Newcastle. On expected goals we have Crystal Palace at 2.2 and Newcastle at 1.8, with 1–1 the most likely score (8%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 68%. We make Crystal Palace 34% to win, the draw 26% and Newcastle 40%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 33%, 27% and 42%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 68%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.46. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 34% | 3.04 | 33% | +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 | 27% | -4% |
| Newcastle win | 40% | 2.40 | 42% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.63 | 61% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.52 | 40% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 1.46 | 68% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 32% | 2.80 | 36% | -11% |
| Crystal Palace or draw | 60% | 1.65 | 61% | -1% |
| Newcastle or draw | 66% | 1.45 | 69% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.32 | 76% | -2% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2.2 |
| Newcastle | 1.8 |
| Total | 4.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle | 8% |
| Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle | 8% |
| Crystal Palace 2–2 Newcastle | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | |
| Newcastle |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 16th | 7 | 7 |
| Newcastle | 14th | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.85 (54%) | 2.06 (49%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.60 (63%) | 2.41 (41%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: FAQ
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
We make Crystal Palace 34% to win, the draw 26% and Newcastle 40%, so Newcastle are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Newcastle the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 68%.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
We give both teams to score a 68% chance, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.46. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Crystal Palace and 1.8 for Newcastle.
How many goals in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our model expects about 4.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and under 2.5 at 37%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.63. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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