Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction
Aston Villa
Manchester CityResult: Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Won |
| Both teams to score | Won |
| Manchester City to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 58%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.8, so 56% for over 2.5 and 58% for both to score
- Last five: Aston Villa WWDWL, Manchester City LWWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Aston Villa vs Manchester City preview
Manchester City were the visitors at Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Aston Villa sit 6th in the table on 11 points from 8 games, while Manchester City are 1st with 21 points. Manchester City come into it having won four of their last five (LWWWW); Aston Villa have won three of their last five (WWDWL). Aston Villa average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, compared with 2.5 and 1.1 for Manchester City. Our model expects around 1.1 goals for Aston Villa and 1.8 for Manchester City, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Aston Villa 21% to win, the draw 25% and Manchester City 53%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 65%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.46. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 21% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Manchester City win | 53% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 43% | – | – | – |
| Aston Villa or draw | 47% | – | – | – |
| Manchester City or draw | 79% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.1 |
| Manchester City | 1.8 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1–1 Manchester City | 12% |
| Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester City | 10% |
| Aston Villa 0–2 Manchester City | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | |
| Manchester City |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6th | 11 | 8 |
| Manchester City | 1st | 21 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Manchester City | 2.5 | 1.1 |
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
The match finished Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City. Before kick-off we made Aston Villa 21% to win, the draw 25% and Manchester City 53%, so Manchester City were the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict was Over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
We gave both teams to score a 57% chance. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Aston Villa and 1.8 for Manchester City. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 2–1, 3 goals in all.
What time does Aston Villa vs Manchester City kick off?
Aston Villa vs Manchester City kicked off at 11:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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