Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction
Bournemouth
LeedsNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%; the best price of 1.73 implies 58%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.1 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Bournemouth WLLDD, Leeds DLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Bournemouth vs Leeds preview
Bournemouth host Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October. In the standings, Leeds are 8th on 10 points from 7 games and Bournemouth 17th on 6 points from 7 games. That puts Leeds nine places higher. Leeds come into it having picked up one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five (DLDWD); Bournemouth have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WLLDD). Bournemouth average 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 0.9 for Leeds. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Leeds, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. We make Bournemouth 43% to win, the draw 29% and Leeds 29%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 45%, 28% and 28%. Our verdict is Leeds or draw: we rate it at 57%, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.73. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 43% | 2.24 | 45% | -4% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.60 | 28% | +3% |
| Leeds win | 29% | 3.52 | 28% | +1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 1.92 | 52% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 2.02 | 50% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.67 | 60% | -10% |
| Not both to score | 46% | 2.15 | 47% | -1% |
| Bournemouth or draw | 71% | 1.35 | 74% | -4% |
| Leeds or draw | 57% | 1.73 | 58% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 71% | 1.35 | 74% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.2 |
| Leeds | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds | 15% |
| Bournemouth 0–0 Leeds | 12% |
| Bournemouth 1–0 Leeds | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | |
| Leeds |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 17th | 6 | 7 |
| Leeds | 8th | 10 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Leeds | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Bournemouth vs Leeds: FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We make Bournemouth 43% to win, the draw 29% and Leeds 29%, so Bournemouth are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Bournemouth the shorter price. Our verdict is Leeds or draw at 57%.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We give both teams to score a 54% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Leeds.
How many goals in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 at 52%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.92. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Bournemouth vs Leeds kick off?
Bournemouth vs Leeds kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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