GIL Vicente vs FC Porto prediction
GIL Vicente
FC PortoNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 63%; the best price of 1.53 implies 65%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.4 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: GIL Vicente WWDLL, FC Porto WWWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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GIL Vicente vs FC Porto preview
GIL Vicente are hosting FC Porto in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. GIL Vicente sit 6th in the table on 14 points from 8 games, while FC Porto are 1st with 24 points. Recent results matter here: GIL Vicente have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WWDLL) and FC Porto have won each of their last five (WWWWW). In front of goal, GIL Vicente score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game on average; FC Porto score 2.5 and concede 0.5. On expected goals we have GIL Vicente at 0.9 and FC Porto at 1.4, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 45%. We make GIL Vicente 14% to win, the draw 23% and FC Porto 63%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 13%, 21% and 65%. Our verdict is FC Porto to win: we rate it at 63%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.53. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente win | 14% | 7.87 | 13% | +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.73 | 21% | +7% |
| FC Porto win | 63% | 1.53 | 65% | -3% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 1.95 | 51% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.95 | 51% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 2.15 | 47% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 55% | 1.75 | 57% | -4% |
| GIL Vicente or draw | 37% | 2.81 | 36% | +3% |
| FC Porto or draw | 86% | 1.13 | 88% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 77% | 1.22 | 82% | -6% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 0.9 |
| FC Porto | 1.4 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| GIL Vicente 1–1 FC Porto | 14% |
| GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto | 13% |
| GIL Vicente 0–0 FC Porto | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | |
| FC Porto |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 6th | 14 | 8 |
| FC Porto | 1st | 24 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| FC Porto | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.14 (47%) | 1.67 (60%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.45 (69%) | 2.62 (38%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: FAQ
Who will win GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
We make GIL Vicente 14% to win, the draw 23% and FC Porto 63%, so FC Porto are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with FC Porto the shorter price. Our verdict is FC Porto to win at 63%.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
We give both teams to score a 45% chance, against 47% implied by the best price of 2.15. Our expected goals are 0.9 for GIL Vicente and 1.4 for FC Porto.
How many goals in GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and under 2.5 at 52%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.95. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does GIL Vicente vs FC Porto kick off?
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto kicked off at 19:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
Estoril
Moreirense
Nacional
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Famalicao
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Academico Viseu
Santa Clara
Benfica
Casa Pia