Estoril vs Moreirense prediction
Estoril
MoreirenseNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 53%; the best price of 1.91 implies 52%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.1 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Estoril LLLDL, Moreirense LDWLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Estoril vs Moreirense preview
Primeira Liga action on Sunday 25 October sees Moreirense travel to face Estoril. Estoril sit 18th in the table on 2 points from 8 games, while Moreirense are 12th with 8 points. That puts Moreirense six places higher. Moreirense come into it having lost three of their last five (LDWLL); Estoril have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLDL). Estoril average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, compared with 1.0 and 1.9 for Moreirense. Our model expects around 1.1 goals for Estoril and 1.1 for Moreirense, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. We make Estoril 47% to win, the draw 27% and Moreirense 26%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 50%, 27% and 25%. Our verdict is Moreirense or draw: we rate it at 53%, against 52% implied by the best price of 1.91. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril win | 47% | 2.01 | 50% | -6% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | 27% | +2% |
| Moreirense win | 26% | 3.96 | 25% | +3% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 1.95 | 51% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.96 | 51% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 1.80 | 56% | -8% |
| Not both to score | 49% | 2.05 | 49% | 0% |
| Estoril or draw | 74% | 1.29 | 78% | -5% |
| Moreirense or draw | 53% | 1.91 | 52% | +2% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.30 | 77% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Estoril | 1.1 |
| Moreirense | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Estoril 1–1 Moreirense | 15% |
| Estoril 0–0 Moreirense | 13% |
| Estoril 1–0 Moreirense | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Estoril | |
| Moreirense |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 18th | 2 | 8 |
| Moreirense | 12th | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.37 (42%) | 1.74 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Estoril vs Moreirense: FAQ
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
We make Estoril 47% to win, the draw 27% and Moreirense 26%, so Estoril are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Estoril the shorter price. Our verdict is Moreirense or draw at 53%.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
We give both teams to score a 51% chance, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Estoril and 1.1 for Moreirense.
How many goals in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and under 2.5 at 52%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.95. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Estoril vs Moreirense kick off?
Estoril vs Moreirense kicks off at 15:30 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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