Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Primeira Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Alverca

0–1

Full time

Arouca

Result: Alverca 0–1 Arouca

Pick	Outcome
Arouca or draw	Won

Settled on our public track record.

Our verdict · Double chance

Arouca or draw Won

Our chance56%

Best price1.78

Fair odds1.78

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 62%
Expected goals 1.2–1.1, so 38% for over 2.5 and 46% for both to score
Last five: Alverca WWWLD, Arouca WDLDW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

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Alverca vs Arouca preview

Alverca hosted Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Alverca sit 8th in the table on 11 points from 9 games, while Arouca are 5th with 17 points. On form, Alverca have won three of their last five (LWWWL), while Arouca have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WWDLD). In front of goal, Alverca score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.8. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Alverca and 1.1 for Arouca, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. We make Alverca 44% to win, the draw 30% and Arouca 27%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 47%, 29% and 25%. Our verdict is Arouca or draw: we rate it at 56%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Alverca win	44%	2.13	47%	-7%
Draw	30%	3.45	29%	+2%
Arouca win	27%	3.97	25%	+6%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	47%	1.95	51%	-9%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.93	52%	+3%
Both teams to score	53%	1.75	57%	-7%
Not both to score	47%	2.20	45%	+3%
Alverca or draw	73%	1.30	77%	-5%
Arouca or draw	56%	1.78	56%	0%
Either team to win	70%	1.36	74%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Alverca	1.2
Arouca	1.1
Total	2.2

Most likely scores	Chance
Alverca 1–1 Arouca	15%
Alverca 0–0 Arouca	12%
Alverca 1–0 Arouca	11%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Alverca
Arouca

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Alverca	8th	11	9
Arouca	5th	17	9

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Alverca	1.4	1.4
Arouca	1.3	0.8

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	2.10 (48%)	1.75 (57%)
Cards 3.5	1.25 (80%)	3.70 (27%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Alverca vs Arouca: FAQ

Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?

The match finished Alverca 0–1 Arouca. Before kick-off we made Alverca 44% to win, the draw 30% and Arouca 27%, so Alverca were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Alverca the shorter price. Our verdict was Arouca or draw at 56%.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Arouca?

We gave both teams to score a 53% chance, against 57% implied by the best price of 1.75. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Alverca and 1.1 for Arouca. In the end, both teams did not score.

How many goals in Alverca vs Arouca?

Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 47% and under 2.5 at 53%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.95. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 0–1, 1 goal in all.

What time does Alverca vs Arouca kick off?

Alverca vs Arouca kicked off at 17:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.