AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
AC Milan
BolognaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%; the best price of 1.65 implies 61%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.0 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: AC Milan WDWDD, Bologna WLWDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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AC Milan vs Bologna preview
Serie A action on Wednesday 28 October sees Bologna travel to face AC Milan. AC Milan sit 5th in the table on 15 points from 7 games, while Bologna are 13th with 8 points. That puts AC Milan eight places higher. Bologna come into it having picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLWDL); AC Milan have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (WDWDD). AC Milan average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.0 and 1.3 for Bologna. On expected goals we have AC Milan at 1.5 and Bologna at 1.0, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. We make AC Milan 57% to win, the draw 24% and Bologna 19%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 61%, 23% and 18%. Our verdict is AC Milan to win: we rate it at 57%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 57% | 1.65 | 61% | -6% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.28 | 23% | +5% |
| Bologna win | 19% | 5.71 | 18% | +7% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.88 | 53% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.07 | 48% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 1.85 | 54% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 49% | 1.95 | 51% | -5% |
| AC Milan or draw | 81% | 1.19 | 84% | -3% |
| Bologna or draw | 43% | 2.39 | 42% | +3% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.26 | 79% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.5 |
| Bologna | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AC Milan 1–1 Bologna | 14% |
| AC Milan 1–0 Bologna | 11% |
| AC Milan 0–0 Bologna | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| AC Milan | |
| Bologna |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 5th | 15 | 7 |
| Bologna | 13th | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Bologna | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.55 (39%) | 1.47 (68%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
AC Milan vs Bologna: FAQ
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
We make AC Milan 57% to win, the draw 24% and Bologna 19%, so AC Milan are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AC Milan the shorter price. Our verdict is AC Milan to win at 57%.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
We give both teams to score a 51% chance, against 54% implied by the best price of 1.85. Our expected goals are 1.5 for AC Milan and 1.0 for Bologna.
How many goals in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.88. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
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