Serie A

Genoa vs Venezia prediction

Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Genoa

14:00

Kick-off (UTC)

Venezia

Our verdict · Both teams to score

Both teams to score

Our chance56%

Best price1.78

Fair odds1.78

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 56%; the best price of 1.78 implies 56%
Expected goals 1.7–1.5, so 50% for over 2.5 and 56% for both to score
Last five: Genoa LWLDL, Venezia WLLLL
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Double chance

Genoa or draw

No side is clear, so we cover two results: 72% combined.

72%

@ 1.32

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Genoa vs Venezia preview

Genoa host Venezia in Serie A on Sunday 25 October. Genoa sit 17th in the table on 4 points from 7 games, while Venezia are 20th with 3 points. On form, Genoa have lost three of their last five (LWLDL), while Venezia have lost four of their last five (WLLLL). Genoa average 0.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 0.9 and 2.3 for Venezia. On expected goals we have Genoa at 1.7 and Venezia at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Genoa 44% to win, the draw 28% and Venezia 28%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 45%, 29% and 26%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 56%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Genoa win	44%	2.20	45%	-3%
Draw	28%	3.45	29%	-3%
Venezia win	28%	3.80	26%	+6%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.04	49%	+2%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	1.90	53%	-5%
Both teams to score	56%	1.78	56%	0%
Not both to score	44%	2.05	49%	-10%
Genoa or draw	72%	1.32	76%	-5%
Venezia or draw	56%	1.75	57%	-2%
Either team to win	72%	1.38	72%	-1%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Genoa	1.7
Venezia	1.5
Total	3.2

Most likely scores	Chance
Genoa 1–1 Venezia	12%
Genoa 2–1 Venezia	9%
Genoa 1–2 Venezia	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Genoa
Venezia

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Genoa	17th	4	7
Venezia	20th	3	7

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Genoa	0.7	1.9
Venezia	0.9	2.3

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	2.40 (42%)	1.64 (61%)
Cards 3.5	1.55 (65%)	2.65 (38%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Genoa vs Venezia: FAQ

Who will win Genoa vs Venezia?

We make Genoa 44% to win, the draw 28% and Venezia 28%, so Genoa are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Genoa the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 56%.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Venezia?

We give both teams to score a 56% chance, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Genoa and 1.5 for Venezia.

How many goals in Genoa vs Venezia?

Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and under 2.5 at 50%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.04. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Genoa vs Venezia kick off?

Genoa vs Venezia kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A.