Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction
Atalanta
FrosinoneNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 49%; the best price of 2.06 implies 49%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Atalanta LWLLL, Frosinone WLWDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.6 and 1.2 xG.
Expected goals 1.6–1.2, 2.8 in total.
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Atalanta vs Frosinone preview
Serie A action on Sunday 25 October sees Frosinone travel to face Atalanta. In the standings, Frosinone are 6th on 13 points from 7 games and Atalanta 11th on 9 points from 7 games. Recent results matter here: Atalanta have lost four of their last five (LWLLL) and Frosinone have won three of their last five (WLWDW). Atalanta average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, compared with 1.9 and 1.3 for Frosinone. On expected goals we have Atalanta at 1.6 and Frosinone at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (13%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Atalanta 51% to win, the draw 25% and Frosinone 25%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 53%, 24% and 24%. Our verdict is Frosinone or draw: we rate it at 49%, against 49% implied by the best price of 2.06. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 51% | 1.87 | 53% | -5% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.20 | 24% | +4% |
| Frosinone win | 25% | 4.22 | 24% | +4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.42 | 70% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 3.00 | 33% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.40 | 71% | -9% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 3.00 | 33% | +4% |
| Atalanta or draw | 75% | 1.30 | 77% | -2% |
| Frosinone or draw | 49% | 2.06 | 49% | +1% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.27 | 79% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.6 |
| Frosinone | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Atalanta 1–1 Frosinone | 13% |
| Atalanta 2–1 Frosinone | 9% |
| Atalanta 1–0 Frosinone | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | |
| Frosinone |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 11th | 9 | 7 |
| Frosinone | 6th | 13 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Frosinone | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.75 (57%) | 2.25 (44%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.37 (42%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: FAQ
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
We make Atalanta 51% to win, the draw 25% and Frosinone 25%, so Atalanta are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Atalanta the shorter price. Our verdict is Frosinone or draw at 49%.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 71% implied by the best price of 1.40. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Atalanta and 1.2 for Frosinone.
How many goals in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.42. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Atalanta vs Frosinone kick off?
Atalanta vs Frosinone kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A.
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