Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
Inter
FiorentinaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 70%; the best price of 1.45 implies 69%
- Expected goals 3.2–1.6, so 70% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Inter WWDWW, Fiorentina LLDWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Inter the win 70%.
Both sides expected to score: 3.2 and 1.6 xG.
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Inter vs Fiorentina preview
Serie A action on Sunday 25 October sees Fiorentina travel to face Inter. Inter sit 1st in the table on 19 points from 7 games, while Fiorentina are 18th with 4 points. That puts Inter 17 places higher. Fiorentina come into it having lost three of their last five (LLDWL); Inter have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWDWW). In front of goal, Inter score 3.0 and concede 1.3 a game on average; Fiorentina score 1.1 and concede 2.4. Our model expects around 3.2 goals for Inter and 1.6 for Fiorentina, and 3–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Inter 70% to win, the draw 17% and Fiorentina 13%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 71%, 17% and 12%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 70%, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 70% | 1.41 | 71% | -1% |
| Draw | 17% | 5.81 | 17% | -3% |
| Fiorentina win | 13% | 8.14 | 12% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.45 | 69% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | 2.99 | 33% | -10% |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 1.67 | 60% | 0% |
| Not both to score | 40% | 2.20 | 45% | -11% |
| Inter or draw | 87% | 1.11 | 90% | -3% |
| Fiorentina or draw | 30% | 3.25 | 31% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 83% | 1.18 | 85% | -2% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Inter | 3.2 |
| Fiorentina | 1.6 |
| Total | 4.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Inter 3–1 Fiorentina | 7% |
| Inter 2–1 Fiorentina | 7% |
| Inter 4–1 Fiorentina | 6% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Inter | |
| Fiorentina |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1st | 19 | 7 |
| Fiorentina | 18th | 4 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Fiorentina | 1.1 | 2.4 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.02 (50%) | 1.96 (51%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.89 (53%) | 1.91 (52%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Inter vs Fiorentina: FAQ
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
We make Inter 70% to win, the draw 17% and Fiorentina 13%, so Inter are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Inter the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 3.2 for Inter and 1.6 for Fiorentina.
How many goals in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our model expects about 4.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and under 2.5 at 30%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.45. The single most likely score is 3–1.
What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Inter vs Fiorentina kicks off at 11:30 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A.
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