Udinese vs AC Milan prediction
Udinese
AC MilanNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 52%; the best price of 1.86 implies 54%
- Expected goals 1.0–1.6 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Udinese LLLLL, AC Milan WDWDD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Udinese vs AC Milan preview
Udinese host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday 25 October. Udinese sit 16th in the table on 4 points from 7 games, while AC Milan are 5th with 15 points. That puts AC Milan 11 places higher. AC Milan come into it having gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (WDWDD); Udinese have lost each of their last five (LLLLL). In front of goal, Udinese score 1.3 and concede 2.3 a game on average; AC Milan score 2.0 and concede 1.0. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Udinese and 1.6 for AC Milan, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 53%. We make Udinese 21% to win, the draw 26% and AC Milan 52%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 21%, 26% and 54%. Our verdict is AC Milan to win: we rate it at 52%, against 54% implied by the best price of 1.86. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 21% | 4.75 | 21% | +0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 26% | +1% |
| AC Milan win | 52% | 1.86 | 54% | -3% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.97 | 51% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.97 | 51% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 1.80 | 56% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 47% | 2.05 | 49% | -3% |
| Udinese or draw | 48% | 2.15 | 47% | +2% |
| AC Milan or draw | 79% | 1.23 | 81% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Udinese | 1.0 |
| AC Milan | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Udinese 1–1 AC Milan | 13% |
| Udinese 0–1 AC Milan | 10% |
| Udinese 0–2 AC Milan | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Udinese | |
| AC Milan |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 16th | 4 | 7 |
| AC Milan | 5th | 15 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| AC Milan | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.40 (42%) | 1.69 (59%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.83 (55%) | 2.07 (48%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Udinese vs AC Milan: FAQ
Who will win Udinese vs AC Milan?
We make Udinese 21% to win, the draw 26% and AC Milan 52%, so AC Milan are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AC Milan the shorter price. Our verdict is AC Milan to win at 52%.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AC Milan?
We give both teams to score a 53% chance, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Udinese and 1.6 for AC Milan.
How many goals in Udinese vs AC Milan?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and under 2.5 at 50%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.97. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Udinese vs AC Milan kick off?
Udinese vs AC Milan kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A.
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