Serie A

AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction

Serie A · Tuesday 27 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

AS Roma

19:45

Kick-off (UTC)

Cagliari

Our verdict · Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Our chance55%

Best price1.78

Fair odds1.83

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 55%; the best price of 1.78 implies 56%
Expected goals 1.8–1.0, so 55% for over 2.5 and 48% for both to score
Last five: AS Roma DWDDW, Cagliari LLDWW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Result

AS Roma to win

Our model gives AS Roma the win 69%.

69%

@ 1.40

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AS Roma vs Cagliari preview

AS Roma welcome Cagliari on Tuesday 27 October in Serie A. In the standings, Cagliari are 8th on 13 points from 8 games and AS Roma 3rd on 18 points from 8 games. On form, AS Roma have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (DWDDW), while Cagliari have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LLDWW). AS Roma average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, compared with 0.8 and 1.1 for Cagliari. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for AS Roma and 1.0 for Cagliari, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 48%. We make AS Roma 69% to win, the draw 20% and Cagliari 11%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 71%, 19% and 10%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 55%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
AS Roma win	69%	1.40	71%	-4%
Draw	20%	5.20	19%	+4%
Cagliari win	11%	9.84	10%	+12%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.78	56%	-3%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.20	45%	0%
Both teams to score	48%	2.07	48%	-1%
Not both to score	52%	1.75	57%	-8%
AS Roma or draw	89%	1.09	92%	-3%
Cagliari or draw	31%	3.25	31%	+2%
Either team to win	80%	1.20	83%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
AS Roma	1.8
Cagliari	1.0
Total	2.8

Most likely scores	Chance
AS Roma 1–1 Cagliari	12%
AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari	10%
AS Roma 1–0 Cagliari	10%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
AS Roma
Cagliari

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
AS Roma	3rd	18	8
Cagliari	8th	13	8

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
AS Roma	2.4	0.8
Cagliari	0.8	1.1

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	2.02 (50%)	1.78 (56%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

AS Roma vs Cagliari: FAQ

Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?

We make AS Roma 69% to win, the draw 20% and Cagliari 11%, so AS Roma are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AS Roma the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 55%.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?

We give both teams to score a 48% chance, against 48% implied by the best price of 2.07. Our expected goals are 1.8 for AS Roma and 1.0 for Cagliari.

How many goals in AS Roma vs Cagliari?

Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.78. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?

AS Roma vs Cagliari kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 27 October 2026, in Serie A.