Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction
Sassuolo
LazioNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 69%; the best price of 1.45 implies 69%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.6 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Sassuolo LLDLW, Lazio WWWDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.1 and 1.6 xG.
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Sassuolo vs Lazio preview
Sassuolo host Lazio in Serie A on Tuesday 27 October. In the standings, Lazio are 2nd on 19 points from 7 games and Sassuolo 14th on 8 points from 8 games. That puts Lazio 12 places higher. On form, Sassuolo have lost three of their last five (LLDLW), while Lazio have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWWDW). In front of goal, Sassuolo score 1.5 and concede 2.0 a game on average; Lazio score 2.0 and concede 0.6. Our model expects around 1.1 goals for Sassuolo and 1.6 for Lazio, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 58%. We make Sassuolo 31% to win, the draw 28% and Lazio 41%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 34%, 28% and 40%. Our verdict is Lazio or draw: we rate it at 69%, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 31% | 2.96 | 34% | -8% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 28% | -2% |
| Lazio win | 41% | 2.53 | 40% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.82 | 55% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | 47% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 1.60 | 63% | -7% |
| Not both to score | 42% | 2.30 | 43% | -3% |
| Sassuolo or draw | 59% | 1.60 | 63% | -6% |
| Lazio or draw | 69% | 1.45 | 69% | +0% |
| Either team to win | 72% | 1.34 | 75% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.1 |
| Lazio | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo 1–1 Lazio | 13% |
| Sassuolo 1–2 Lazio | 10% |
| Sassuolo 0–1 Lazio | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | |
| Lazio |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 14th | 8 | 8 |
| Lazio | 2nd | 19 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Lazio | 2.0 | 0.6 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.69 (59%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: FAQ
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
We make Sassuolo 31% to win, the draw 28% and Lazio 41%, so Lazio are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Lazio the shorter price. Our verdict is Lazio or draw at 69%.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
We give both teams to score a 58% chance, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Sassuolo and 1.6 for Lazio.
How many goals in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and under 2.5 at 47%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.82. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sassuolo vs Lazio kick off?
Sassuolo vs Lazio kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Tuesday 27 October 2026, in Serie A.
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