Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
Fiorentina
AtalantaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 61%; the best price of 1.65 implies 61%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.6 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Fiorentina LLDWL, Atalanta LWLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.4 and 1.6 xG.
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Fiorentina vs Atalanta preview
Fiorentina host Atalanta in Serie A on Thursday 29 October. In the standings, Atalanta are 11th on 9 points from 7 games and Fiorentina 18th on 4 points from 7 games. That puts Atalanta seven places higher. On form, Fiorentina have lost three of their last five (LLDWL), while Atalanta have lost four of their last five (LWLLL). Fiorentina average 1.1 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 1.6 for Atalanta. On expected goals we have Fiorentina at 1.4 and Atalanta at 1.6, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Fiorentina 39% to win, the draw 27% and Atalanta 34%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 42%, 27% and 32%. Our verdict is Atalanta or draw: we rate it at 61%, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 39% | 2.40 | 42% | -6% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 27% | -1% |
| Atalanta win | 34% | 3.09 | 32% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | 56% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.20 | 45% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 1.60 | 63% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 40% | 2.30 | 43% | -7% |
| Fiorentina or draw | 66% | 1.43 | 70% | -6% |
| Atalanta or draw | 61% | 1.65 | 61% | +0% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.33 | 75% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.4 |
| Atalanta | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta | 12% |
| Fiorentina 1–2 Atalanta | 9% |
| Fiorentina 2–1 Atalanta | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina | |
| Atalanta |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 18th | 4 | 7 |
| Atalanta | 11th | 9 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Atalanta | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.65 (61%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: FAQ
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We make Fiorentina 39% to win, the draw 27% and Atalanta 34%, so Fiorentina are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Fiorentina the shorter price. Our verdict is Atalanta or draw at 61%.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Fiorentina and 1.6 for Atalanta.
How many goals in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.78. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Serie A.
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