Frosinone vs Lecce prediction
Frosinone
LecceNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 61%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.3, so 59% for over 2.5 and 61% for both to score
- Last five: Frosinone WLWDW, Lecce WLLWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
Expected goals 1.6–1.3, 2.8 in total.
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Frosinone vs Lecce preview
Serie A action on Thursday 29 October sees Lecce travel to face Frosinone. In the standings, Lecce are 12th on 9 points from 7 games and Frosinone 6th on 13 points from 7 games. That puts Frosinone six places higher. Recent results matter here: Frosinone have won three of their last five (WLWDW) and Lecce have lost three of their last five (WLLWL). Frosinone average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 1.7 for Lecce. Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Frosinone and 1.3 for Lecce, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Frosinone 48% to win, the draw 26% and Lecce 26%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 51%, 26% and 25%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 61%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone win | 48% | 1.97 | 51% | -5% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | 26% | +1% |
| Lecce win | 26% | 4.05 | 25% | +4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.57 | 64% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.47 | 40% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.55 | 65% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 39% | 2.48 | 40% | -3% |
| Frosinone or draw | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -3% |
| Lecce or draw | 52% | 1.93 | 52% | 0% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.30 | 77% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1.6 |
| Lecce | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Frosinone 1–1 Lecce | 13% |
| Frosinone 2–1 Lecce | 9% |
| Frosinone 1–0 Lecce | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Frosinone | |
| Lecce |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 6th | 13 | 7 |
| Lecce | 12th | 9 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Lecce | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.67 (60%) | 2.20 (45%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Frosinone vs Lecce: FAQ
Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?
We make Frosinone 48% to win, the draw 26% and Lecce 26%, so Frosinone are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Frosinone the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 61%.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Lecce?
We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Frosinone and 1.3 for Lecce.
How many goals in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 59% and under 2.5 at 41%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.57. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Frosinone vs Lecce kick off?
Frosinone vs Lecce kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Serie A.
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