Parma vs Udinese prediction
Parma
UdineseNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%; the best price of 1.60 implies 63%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.8 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Parma LLWLD, Udinese LLLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Parma vs Udinese preview
Serie A action on Wednesday 28 October sees Udinese travel to face Parma. Parma sit 19th in the table on 4 points from 7 games, while Udinese are 16th with 4 points. The two sides are level on points. Recent results matter here: Parma have lost three of their last five (LLWLD) and Udinese have lost each of their last five (LLLLL). In front of goal, Parma score 0.6 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Udinese score 1.3 and concede 2.3. On expected goals we have Parma at 1.6 and Udinese at 1.8, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. We make Parma 32% to win, the draw 28% and Udinese 40%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 32%, 29% and 40%. Our verdict is Parma or draw: we rate it at 60%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 32% | 3.13 | 32% | +0% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 | 29% | -5% |
| Udinese win | 40% | 2.50 | 40% | 0% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.24 | 45% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.77 | 56% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 1.91 | 52% | +1% |
| Not both to score | 47% | 1.91 | 52% | -10% |
| Parma or draw | 60% | 1.60 | 63% | -4% |
| Udinese or draw | 68% | 1.42 | 70% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 72% | 1.37 | 73% | -1% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Parma | 1.6 |
| Udinese | 1.8 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Parma 1–1 Udinese | 11% |
| Parma 1–2 Udinese | 9% |
| Parma 2–1 Udinese | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Parma | |
| Udinese |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 19th | 4 | 7 |
| Udinese | 16th | 4 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Udinese | 1.3 | 2.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.07 (48%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Parma vs Udinese: FAQ
Who will win Parma vs Udinese?
We make Parma 32% to win, the draw 28% and Udinese 40%, so Udinese are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Udinese the shorter price. Our verdict is Parma or draw at 60%.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?
We give both teams to score a 53% chance, against 52% implied by the best price of 1.91. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Parma and 1.8 for Udinese.
How many goals in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 48% and under 2.5 at 53%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.24. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Parma vs Udinese kicks off at 17:30 UTC on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
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