Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction
Estrela
Casa PiaResult: Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | Won |
| Estrela to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%
- Expected goals 1.0–1.3, so 40% for over 2.5 and 47% for both to score
- Last five: Estrela LLLDW, Casa Pia WLWLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
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Estrela vs Casa Pia preview
Casa Pia were the visitors at Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Estrela sit 10th in the table on 10 points from 9 games, while Casa Pia are 16th with 7 points. That puts Estrela six places higher. Recent results matter here: Estrela have lost three of their last five (LLLDW) and Casa Pia have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLWLD). In front of goal, Estrela score 1.6 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Casa Pia score 0.6 and concede 1.9.
Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Estrela and 1.3 for Casa Pia, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%. We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. We make Estrela 28% to win, the draw 31% and Casa Pia 40%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 53%, against 52% implied by the best price of 1.92. The edge is slim at around 2%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 28% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 31% | – | – | – |
| Casa Pia win | 40% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 53% | – | – | – |
| Estrela or draw | 60% | – | – | – |
| Casa Pia or draw | 72% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 69% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.0 |
| Casa Pia | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia | 15% |
| Estrela 0–0 Casa Pia | 12% |
| Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Estrela | |
| Casa Pia |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 10th | 10 | 9 |
| Casa Pia | 16th | 7 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Casa Pia | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Estrela vs Casa Pia: FAQ
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The match finished Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia. Before kick-off we made Estrela 28% to win, the draw 31% and Casa Pia 40%, so Casa Pia were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Under 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We gave both teams to score a 47% chance. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Estrela and 1.3 for Casa Pia. In the end, both teams did not score.
How many goals in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 40% and under 2.5 at 60%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 0–2, 2 goals in all.
What time does Estrela vs Casa Pia kick off?
Estrela vs Casa Pia kicked off at 14:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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